Eli Lilly's Q3 2026 Mounjaro sales outlook reflects sustained volume-driven growth in tirzepatide demand, following Q2 revenue of $9.94 billion that rose 91% year-over-year and contributed to a company-wide revenue increase to $23 billion. Realized prices faced compression of around 13%, offset by 60% higher volumes and expanded access including Medicare obesity coverage starting mid-2026. Analysts will focus on whether sequential momentum holds amid supply expansions and competition from oral GLP-1 options, with the Oct. 29 earnings release serving as the key catalyst for resolution. Market-implied odds incorporate these fundamentals alongside historical base rates for seasonal prescription trends in the category.