Trader consensus reflects the substantial technical, political, and diplomatic barriers to any US ally acquiring operational nuclear weapons in the remaining weeks of 2026. Recent US agreements with South Korea on nuclear-powered submarines and with Saudi Arabia on civilian nuclear cooperation have advanced enrichment pathways and fuel options, yet both remain subject to bilateral limits, IAEA oversight considerations, and extended deterrence commitments that discourage independent arsenals. South Korean public support for domestic weapons exceeds 70 percent amid North Korean threats, while Japanese and European allies continue prioritizing alliance integration over breakout. Historical precedents show weaponization timelines far exceed the resolution window even after a political decision. Late shifts in US policy or undisclosed programs represent the primary variables that could still alter probabilities before year-end.