Recent reports of friction between President Trump and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, including Trump bypassing her input on the new press secretary appointment, have elevated her odds alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who faces low approval ratings and criticism tied to foreign policy outcomes and midterm voter sentiment. Multiple prior departures from roles such as Homeland Security, Attorney General, and National Security Advisor illustrate patterns of turnover in the administration. Traders assign the highest implied probability to no further exits before 2027, reflecting expectations of relative stability ahead of November midterms despite ongoing scrutiny of officials like Lee Zeldin, Mike Waltz, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over policy implementation and congressional oversight.