Trader consensus assigns over half the probability to no further Cabinet departures before 2027, reflecting expectations of relative stability after elevated turnover earlier in the term. Recent Pentagon leadership changes, including multiple general officer removals and reported clashes over readiness, have kept Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in focus amid polls showing low public approval tied to policy outcomes. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz’s reassignment to UN ambassador following the Signal group chat incident illustrates how operational missteps can prompt shifts without immediate exits. Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has faced reports of internal friction, while Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others appear in surveys as lower-probability candidates. Scheduled midterms and ongoing agency implementation timelines remain the primary near-term variables that could alter these assessments.