Escalating attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of trader sentiment, with at least 10 strikes recorded in early October alone and traffic down sharply to roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels. US naval assets, including multiple carrier strike groups such as USS George Washington and USS George H.W. Bush, are actively operating in the area to enforce restrictions and escort limited oil exports, supporting market-implied odds that favor continued American transits. Brent crude has traded above $106 per barrel as Gulf flows remain constrained, elevating tanker rates, war-risk insurance premiums, and volatility in energy futures. European multinational escort plans remain stalled with limited forward deployments from France and the UK, while broader allied participation hinges on de-escalation or formal coalition commitments ahead of the December 31 resolution.