Incumbent Republican Phil Scott holds a commanding lead in the Vermont governor race due to his long record of strong electoral performance in a state that leans Democratic at the presidential level. Recent polls show a tighter contest than his prior landslides, with mixed results including a statistical tie or narrow Janoo edge in one University of New Hampshire survey and Scott leads of 3–10 points in others conducted through early October. Janoo outraised Scott in September and secured high-profile endorsements including from Sen. Bernie Sanders, while the Republican Governors Association directed $400,000 in support to Scott. Forecasters rate the race Likely Republican, and traders appear to weigh Scott’s incumbency advantage and historical polling underperformance more heavily than the challenger’s momentum heading into the November 3 election.