Bipartisan incentives to avoid economic disruption, combined with Congress's established practice of raising or suspending the debt limit, underpin trader consensus that the US will not default by 2027 despite debt subject to the limit approaching $41.1 trillion. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the ceiling in 2025, and recent projections place contact in mid-2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway into 2028. Republican lawmakers are weighing a lame-duck increase to preempt leverage disputes after the midterms, consistent with historical resolutions that prioritize Treasury obligations over brinkmanship. While elevated yields and interest costs add fiscal pressure, primary factors such as the dollar's reserve status and institutional safeguards make outright default improbable. Late-session gridlock or unforeseen shocks could introduce volatility, though market pricing reflects low odds of such outcomes materializing into default.