Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk faces ongoing institutional friction with President Karol Nawrocki over reforms to the Constitutional Tribunal, including recent police involvement at the court building and suspended judges, yet the Sejm lacks the votes for a constructive no-confidence motion that could replace him. The ruling coalition maintains its parliamentary majority despite internal strains and recent polling dips, while the constitution limits the president's authority to direct removal. With parliamentary elections scheduled only for 2027 and no viable path to an immediate snap vote or majority shift before year-end, trader consensus reflects the structural barriers to ouster. Late developments such as an unexpected coalition fracture or successful opposition maneuver in the Sejm could still alter the timeline.