US-Iran tensions, including a 2026 conflict followed by a short-lived June memorandum of understanding that later collapsed, have kept direct presidential engagement limited to indirect talks through mediators. Iranian officials have repeatedly described a Trump-Pezeshkian meeting as off the table or very low probability, citing Washington's tough negotiating stance on proposals involving the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, and security issues, along with the need for Supreme Leader approval. Trump has signaled openness at times, such as during the September UN General Assembly, yet has rejected recent Iranian offers while weighing military options and force buildups ahead of the November midterms. These dynamics, combined with the short timeline remaining before December 31, underpin trader consensus against a bilateral meeting materializing.