The South African Reserve Bank’s latest 25-basis-point hike to 7.25% in September, combined with its Quarterly Projection Model’s guidance for a broadly stable policy rate through year-end, underpins the 71.5% market-implied probability of no change on November 19. Persistent upside risks from elevated global energy prices, fuel shocks linked to geopolitical tensions, and potential food-price pressures tied to El Niño have kept inflation at 4.4% in August with forecasts above 5% into early 2027, prompting the central bank to maintain a moderately restrictive stance while monitoring second-round effects. Weak 2026 growth projections at 1.2% and upcoming October CPI data add to the data-dependent outlook, tempering expectations for further tightening or easing in the near term.