Escalating Iranian surveillance and strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, amid the US-Israel conflict, have driven repeated kinetic attacks on commercial vessels, pushing trader-implied probabilities for daily targeting markets. Recent data from UKMTO and Kpler show at least 15 incidents between October 6-14, including multiple tankers and container ships hit by projectiles or mines on October 10-11, with oil throughput crashing to 2.9 million barrels on October 11—roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels—and Brent crude holding near $106 per barrel. War-risk insurance premiums have surged 30x, deterring transits and amplifying volatility in energy benchmarks. Iran’s use of spotters and route enforcement, coupled with US naval coordination of limited passages, sustains the elevated threat level, with potential catalysts including further escalations ahead of US midterms or any de-escalation signals that could normalize flows.