SB Energy’s delayed IPO timeline underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no closing before January 2027. The SoftBank-backed AI infrastructure developer filed its S-1 in early September targeting a valuation above $50 billion to fund gigawatt-scale data centers and power assets for tenants including OpenAI, with Nvidia committing a total $3 billion investment. However, investor pushback over the $50 billion-plus ask—amid zero realized data center revenue and broader concerns about AI spending sustainability—prompted reports of postponement after SEC review and premarketing. Roadshow launch remains contingent on resolving comments and closing any valuation gap, leaving limited runway before year-end amid typical IPO execution risks and market volatility.