Recent communications from RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway, describing the late-October Official Cash Rate decision as “wide open” with optionality between a hold and a 25 basis point hike, have anchored trader sentiment around the 64.5% implied probability for a 25 bp increase. Persistent near-term inflation pressures from New Zealand dollar depreciation to multi-year lows on the trade-weighted index and higher global oil prices have lifted import costs, pushing monthly price indices higher and raising Q4 CPI forecasts above the bank’s September projections. These factors outweigh growth concerns, including softening retail spending and elevated unemployment, keeping no-change odds at 30.5% as a credible alternative pending the upcoming CPI release.