Recent inflation data showing annual CPI at 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter—well above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band and fueled by elevated global energy prices—has anchored trader expectations for further tightening. With the OCR already at 2.75% following the September 25-basis-point hike, bank forecasts from Westpac and ASB point to a December lift to 3.00% as inflation risks re-accelerate toward 4.2% by year-end amid a weaker NZD. This underpins the 59.5% market-implied probability of a 25 bp increase, while the 37.5% chance of no change reflects the RBNZ’s signaled gradual approach and October pause. Elevated fuel costs and non-tradables inflation remain key swing factors ahead of the December Monetary Policy Statement.