**The unusually dry start to October, with Seattle recording just 0.35 inches through October 11 against a normal of roughly 1 inch, anchors trader preference for totals below 2.5 inches.** Persistent high pressure and limited onshore flow have suppressed rainfall, consistent with the Climate Prediction Center’s early-October outlook favoring warmer and drier conditions across much of Washington. An emerging El Niño pattern typically reduces Pacific Northwest precipitation by weakening the Aleutian Low and steering storms farther north. Historical data show October normals near 3.9 inches with a wide interquartile range (2.5–5.1 inches), but current model consensus and the month’s late timing for the typical wet-season ramp-up tilt probabilities toward the lower bins. Key upcoming drivers include National Weather Service forecast updates and any shifts in sea-surface temperature anomalies that could alter late-month storm tracks.