**Below-average rainfall through mid-October, combined with a mostly dry forecast for the coming week, underpins trader preference for totals in the 3–4.25 inch or sub-3 inch ranges.** Central Park has recorded roughly 2 inches so far, driven largely by a single 1.84-inch event on October 11, leaving the month well below the 4.38-inch 1991–2020 normal. National Weather Service guidance shows limited precipitation chances through mid-month, with only modest shower potential around October 16–17 tied to a passing front; subsequent high pressure and cooler northwest flow favor suppressed moisture. With 19 days remaining, model consensus points to light additional accumulation that would keep the monthly total near or below average, though any stronger coastal system could shift probabilities toward the higher bins.