Elevated energy costs, particularly surging gasoline and diesel prices amid Middle East supply risks and Brent crude near $100 per barrel, represent the dominant driver of September 2026 PPI YoY expectations. August’s 5.4% year-over-year print already exceeded forecasts, with goods advancing 1.1% monthly on a 4.2% energy spike, while services showed milder gains. Traders assign the highest implied probability (30.5%) to a 5.9%+ outcome, reflecting uncertainty over how fully these input pressures and potential tariff effects on goods will transmit to final demand, versus any moderation in core components. The September PPI release, scheduled for October 15, will clarify whether the recent reacceleration persists or shows signs of peaking.