Pete Hegseth continues to serve as secretary of war with active public schedule items and policy announcements into October 2026, backed by explicit statements of presidential confidence. Trader consensus at 98.3 percent against removal by October 31 reflects the absence of any formal resignation, firing, or Senate action in the narrow remaining window, despite earlier Republican criticism over general officer reductions, Army leadership departures, and management of operations against Iran. Structural barriers include the requirement for presidential initiative or congressional processes that have not advanced to a vote. Late developments such as a major operational setback, health incident, or abrupt White House reversal remain the primary variables that could still shift the outcome before the deadline.