**OpenAI has not issued a formal announcement declaring it has achieved AGI by its charter definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work.** In late August 2026, CEO Sam Altman told TIME the company expected an internal system meeting his AGI criteria by year-end, while Chief Research Officer Mark Chen placed progress at roughly 80 percent. The September 3 release of GPT-6 Astra prompted President Greg Brockman to say “Welcome to the AGI era” and express a personal view that the milestone had arrived, echoed by Nvidia’s Jensen Huang. However, OpenAI framed the launch around benchmark gains on ARC-AGI-3, FrontierMath, and agentic tasks rather than a definitive declaration, and independent evaluators noted heavy prompt optimization and the absence of proof for true generality. Subsequent October releases of hundreds of AI-generated math results from an unreleased internal model drew attention but stayed within the same measured tone. With only weeks left in 2026 and no unqualified company-wide announcement, traders assign an 87.5 percent probability to “No,” viewing the qualified rhetoric and benchmark caveats as the dominant factors keeping the odds elevated.