A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.1°C and forecast to peak near +3.7°C by late 2026, serves as the dominant near-term driver elevating October global temperatures well above the long-term anthropogenic trend. September 2026 already reached 1.63°C above the 1850–1900 baseline per Copernicus ERA5 data—the second-warmest September on record—amid record ocean heat content and a continuing run of months above 1.5°C. This aligns with trader emphasis on the 1.35–1.44°C range, as the event’s heat release typically sustains elevated anomalies into boreal autumn while model ensembles project October values near 1.6–1.8°C before any La Niña transition. Updated NOAA and ECMWF forecasts through year-end will refine these market-implied odds.