A record-strength El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0–3.3°C in early October 2026 and forecast to peak near +3.7°C by December, is the dominant driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for the 1.40–1.44°C bin. This event overlays long-term anthropogenic warming on the warmest ocean baseline observed, pushing recent global anomalies to 1.33–1.63°C above pre-industrial levels in September per NOAA and Copernicus data. El Niño’s lagged atmospheric release of stored heat typically amplifies October–December temperatures, though model spreads and steering patterns introduce uncertainty around exact monthly values. Upcoming NOAA and ECMWF updates on Pacific SSTs and global means will likely refine these market-implied odds.