Germany and the EU maintain firm opposition to restarting Nord Stream, citing the risks of renewed dependence on Russian gas supplies after the 2022 sabotage and subsequent diversification to alternative sources. EU transaction bans on the pipelines, effective since July 2025, combined with sanctions and the absence of legal certification for Nord Stream 2, create substantial barriers to resumption. Recent German statements, including from Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in September 2026, reinforce that Berlin sees any restart as a policy reversal. US-Russia discussions on potential American investment have surfaced but face immediate hurdles from European approvals and timelines. Even amid Ukraine peace talks, these structural constraints underpin trader consensus against flows before 2027. Shifts could occur through rapid diplomatic breakthroughs, sanctions relief, or altered EU energy policy.