Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no listed leader departing office before 2027, reflecting the short timeline to year-end and uncertain electoral outcomes. Netanyahu faces a closely contested Israeli election on October 27 that could end his tenure if opposition blocs prevail, while Sánchez called a November 29 snap vote in Spain amid housing protests and coalition strains that polls indicate may cost him power. France’s recent prime ministerial resignation and ongoing parliamentary fragmentation keep Lecornu in contention despite low odds. Zelenskyy’s extended term under martial law faces domestic polling pressure and external commentary, though constitutional barriers and wartime conditions limit near-term removal risks. These near-term electoral and institutional pressures explain the relative positioning ahead of lower-probability cases.