Narendra Modi's position as Prime Minister rests on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance's mandate from the 2024 general election, with the next scheduled parliamentary polls set for 2029 under India's five-year electoral cycle. No major legislative defeats, coalition fractures, or constitutional triggers such as a successful no-confidence motion have emerged to shorten his term. Traders price the "No" outcome at 95.7 percent because the institutional timeline and current parliamentary arithmetic make an early exit improbable. Late developments that could still shift odds include documented health concerns forcing resignation, abrupt coalition realignments, or an unforeseen leadership transition within the BJP before the December 31, 2026 cutoff.