Major U.S. banks' robust capital positions underpin the 93.5% market-implied probability against a bailout before 2027. The Federal Reserve's 2026 Dodd-Frank Act stress tests showed the 32 largest institutions absorbing $708 billion in projected losses while seeing their aggregate common equity tier 1 ratio decline just 1.6 percentage points to a minimum of 11.2%, the smallest drop in years, with all remaining well above regulatory minima. This outcome, alongside resilient economic data including 4.2% unemployment and steady GDP growth near 2.3%, has reinforced trader consensus on sector stability. A sharper-than-expected recession, accelerated commercial real estate losses, or liquidity strains at systemically important institutions could still shift odds, though current buffers and living wills reduce that likelihood.