Forecast consensus points to a lowest temperature in Wuhan on October 15 near 18–20 °C, driven by the arrival of cooler air behind a cold front combined with widespread cloud cover and light to moderate rain that limits daytime heating and nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from Chinese meteorological sources shows highs near 20–24 °C under overcast, rainy conditions, with overnight minima held up by high humidity and reduced clear-sky heat loss. Model spreads arise mainly from small differences in the timing and intensity of precipitation, which can alter surface temperatures by 1–2 °C through changes in evaporative cooling and cloud thickness. The tightly bunched market probabilities across 15–23 °C reflect this narrow but still uncertain range, while the low odds on extremes acknowledge the unlikelihood of either strong cold-air pooling or unseasonal warmth given current synoptic patterns. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of October 14 will refine the precise overnight minimum.