**Incoming cold air and widespread rain are the main drivers narrowing expectations for Wuhan's minimum temperature on October 15.** Official forecasts from Chinese meteorological services and global models show a sharp cooldown tied to northerly flow and the Hanlu solar term, with moderate rain or thunderstorms expected to keep daytime highs near 20–23 °C while overnight lows settle in the upper teens. Persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce radiational cooling but also limit warming, producing a tight clustering of projected minima between roughly 17 °C and 20 °C. Traders appear to price this model consensus and the narrow forecast spread, while assigning low probability to outliers below 15 °C or above 23 °C that would require significant deviations from current guidance. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine the exact minimum.