Recent forecast model consensus from sources like Open-Meteo and European guidance points to overnight lows in Warsaw on October 15 settling between 7–9°C under building high pressure near 1026 hPa, light northwest winds, and variable cloud cover that limits radiational cooling. Clearer periods overnight could allow temperatures to dip toward 6–7°C by dawn, while lingering low clouds or slightly stronger mixing would hold readings near 8–9°C. This narrow range explains the closely matched market-implied probabilities around those outcomes, with residual 24% odds on 2°C or below reflecting tail risks from stronger cooling if skies clear fully. Historical October minima in Warsaw average near 6–8°C, providing context for the current setup ahead of final local observations.