Forecast models from sources including GFS and regional analyses indicate Tel Aviv's overnight minimum on October 15 will likely settle near 22°C, supported by southerly to southwesterly flow, moderate humidity around 60-70%, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with isolated showers possible. These conditions explain the market's tight clustering of implied probabilities across 17–25°C, as small variations in wind strength, cloud timing, or model spread could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Historical October baselines for the region average near 18–20°C at night, but current steering patterns favor milder readings, with resolution depending on official station data thresholds rather than broader trends.