Forecast models from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and international ensembles consistently project a minimum overnight temperature of 22°C in Tel Aviv on October 14, 2026, aligning with observed cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds. This consensus reflects typical autumnal radiative cooling in the coastal Mediterranean climate, where dew points near 16–19°C and moderate humidity limit further temperature drops. Trader positioning at 100% implied probability for 22°C incorporates this model agreement and historical October lows averaging near 20–23°C. Resolution hinges on official station readings, with limited scope for deviation unless localized urban heat effects or unforecast wind shifts alter the recorded minimum.