**Trader consensus heavily favors 23°C as Taipei’s lowest temperature on October 15, with 91.5% implied probability, reflecting broad alignment across forecast models showing overnight minima near this threshold.** Prevailing easterly winds, moderate humidity, and partly cloudy to drizzly conditions limit radiative cooling, keeping temperatures consistent with mid-October climatology for the region. Official guidance from sources like the Central Weather Administration and GFS ensembles supports a stable mild overnight profile around 22–23°C. Realistic challenges include clearer skies enhancing surface cooling or an unexpected wind shift introducing slightly cooler air, though current observations and model consensus indicate low likelihood of deviation below 22°C or above 24°C. Market positioning captures this narrow uncertainty range through skin-in-the-game aggregation.