Recent forecast model consensus from sources like the GFS and Central Weather Administration indicates a weak northeast monsoon influence on October 14, limiting radiative cooling overnight and supporting minimum temperatures near 21–23°C amid partly cloudy skies and easterly flow. This positioning favors the 25°C-or-higher outcome at 49% implied probability, as reduced diurnal ranges from elevated humidity and light winds suppress typical autumn lows. Historical October minima in Taipei average around 20–22°C, but current steering patterns and lack of stronger cold-air advection keep cooler buckets (15°C or below at 2.5%) discounted. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will refine resolution against verified station data.