Forecast models from sources including the National Meteorological Center and international ensembles indicate Shanghai's minimum temperature on October 16 will likely fall between 17–22°C, driven by persistent southeasterly flow and extensive cloud cover that limits nighttime radiative cooling. Recent 48-hour guidance shows little change, with dew points near 15–17°C and light winds sustaining elevated overnight lows compared to climatological mid-October norms around 15°C. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any light drizzle creates the tight clustering around 17–21°C outcomes. Updated runs from regional models expected within 24 hours could refine the exact threshold before resolution.