Current forecasts for Qingdao on October 13 place the overnight minimum near 12–14°C amid northerly winds of 4–7 m/s and partial clearing after early fog or light drizzle. Model consensus reflects modest radiative cooling under broken cloud cover, with sea-surface temperatures near 20°C limiting further drops while variable wind mixing and urban heat effects create a narrow band of uncertainty. This equilibrium supports closely matched market-implied probabilities for 11–14°C outcomes, as small revisions in boundary-layer mixing or timing of clearing could shift the recorded low by 1–2°C. Updated observations from local stations and next model runs will refine the final minimum before resolution.