Recent forecast consensus from models including Open-Meteo and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Paris on October 15 near 10–12 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. Stable high pressure and limited cold-air advection from the north keep overnight radiative cooling modest, with dew points near 9–11 °C supporting the narrow range between leading market outcomes. Historical mid-October baselines average 8–10 °C lows, so current guidance reflects warmer-than-normal conditions. Traders weigh model spread in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, which can shift the exact low by 1–2 °C before resolution. Updated runs expected overnight will clarify whether the 12 °C or 10 °C bucket captures the official minimum.