Current forecasts from European models and Météo-France guidance indicate Paris overnight lows on October 15 will likely settle between 9–12 °C under building high pressure, light southerly flow, and mostly clear skies that permit moderate radiative cooling. Ensemble spreads remain modest because daytime warmth from 14 October carries residual heat into the night, while variable cloud patches and slight wind shifts introduce uncertainty in the exact minimum. Historical mid-October baselines average near 8–10 °C, so the current pattern favors readings above that norm. Traders therefore assign nearly identical implied probabilities to 9 °C, 10 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C, with lower odds on extremes pending the next model runs and any last-minute observational updates from surface stations.