Current GFS-based forecasts for Moscow on October 15 show persistent northerly flow, widespread cloud cover, and periods of light rain holding overnight lows near 7–8 °C, slightly above the long-term climatological minimum of roughly 4 °C. High humidity and light winds limit radiational cooling, while the timing of any brief clearing or wind shift could nudge the daily minimum by 1–2 °C. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 7 °C (40 %) versus 8 °C or 4 °C because ensemble spreads and minor differences in model resolution of boundary-layer moisture produce comparable probabilities for those exact thresholds; colder outcomes below 5 °C remain lower-probability given the current synoptic pattern.