Recent GFS and regional model consensus shows Moscow's October 13 overnight low settling near 8–9 °C under persistent northwesterly flow, widespread cloud cover, and periods of light to moderate rain that limit radiational cooling. This places the 4 °C-or-below bin at the market's leading 49.5 % implied probability, reflecting traders' assessment of residual forecast spread and the potential for localized colder pockets if winds weaken. Historical mid-October minima average near 5–7 °C, providing context for the current positioning, while the next official Hydrometeorological Center update and refined model runs expected overnight will likely narrow the uncertainty range ahead of market resolution.