Trader sentiment strongly favors a 13°C minimum in Madrid on October 13 due to clear-sky radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure system, with official forecasts from agencies like AEMET and model runs indicating overnight lows near this threshold after daytime highs reached 27–28°C. Recent observations confirm dry conditions and light winds that enhance surface heat loss, aligning with climatological norms for mid-October where minima typically range 12–15°C. The overwhelming 95.5% implied probability for 13°C reflects consistent model consensus and limited downside risk from the current setup, though an unexpected increase in cloud cover or stronger advection could push the low above this level before resolution.