Official IMD forecasts for Lucknow on October 13 project a minimum temperature near 22°C under mainly clear skies, aligning with the prior night's observed low of 21.8°C and sustaining tight market clustering around 21–24°C. Light northerly winds and moderate humidity limit nocturnal radiative cooling rates, while any patchy haze or minor cloud variations could shift the exact low by 1–2°C. Post-monsoon subsidence and weak steering patterns favor stable conditions without significant cold-air advection, keeping probabilities for 20°C or below below 50% and rendering sub-18°C outcomes highly unlikely absent an unexpected shift in model consensus.