Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and regional sources indicate a minimum temperature for Istanbul on October 14 in the 15–17°C range, driven by persistent cloud cover, widespread heavy rain exceeding 20 mm in many runs, and northeasterly winds of 20–35 km/h that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions follow a mild, rainy pattern established in recent days, consistent with October climatology where daily lows typically average near 15°C. Market-implied odds remain closely balanced near 49% for the 10°C-or-below and 20°C-or-higher brackets because traders weigh minor variations in rainfall timing and wind gusts that could shift the exact overnight minimum by 1–2°C. Official observations after midnight will resolve the outcome.