Recent numerical weather prediction models, including ICON and ECMWF runs, indicate Istanbul will see mostly cloudy conditions with light rain on October 13, limiting overnight radiative cooling and holding the daily minimum near 16–17°C. This consensus from official monitoring supports the market’s elevated implied probability for 21°C or higher as the lowest temperature while capping odds for readings of 11°C or below. Forecasters note typical mid-October baselines around 14–15°C, but persistent cloud cover and northerly flow have kept recent overnight lows elevated, with only modest model spread expected before resolution. Updated guidance ahead of the overnight period could refine these probabilities.