Recent National Weather Service and model guidance from NOAA indicate Houston's overnight minimum on October 14 will likely settle in the low-to-mid 70s under continued southerly flow and partly cloudy skies, with dew points supporting limited radiational cooling. This consensus underpins the market's elevated implied probability on the 69°F-or-below outcome alongside the cluster of mid-70s bins, as traders weigh the narrow window for any late-model cooling surprise before resolution. Historical October normals near 65–70°F provide context, yet the current warm pattern and limited frontal influence keep higher bins at minimal odds. Updated short-range model runs expected overnight will be the next key data point traders monitor for shifts in the lowest-temperature distribution.