**Mild southerly flow and limited radiative cooling are the dominant drivers keeping overnight lows in Helsinki well above freezing on October 14.** Official forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, ECMWF-influenced models, and regional ensembles show minimum temperatures of roughly 7–10 °C under cloudy skies and south-to-southeasterly winds of 5–8 m/s, with light rain possible that further suppresses temperature drops. These conditions contrast sharply with the radiative-cooling regimes needed for sub-zero readings, which historical analogs indicate require clear, calm, northerly flow. Model consensus across sources remains tight on the mild side, with little spread supporting a plunge toward –4 °C or below. Market-implied odds near 50 % for both the coldest and warmest buckets therefore reflect uncertainty in how traders weight the risk of an unforecasted cold outbreak versus the high-confidence baseline of Atlantic air advection. The lowest temperature will be resolved from official FMI station data once the 24-hour period ends.