Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and consensus models indicate overnight lows in Helsinki on October 13 around 3–5 °C under partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow, aligning with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 4.7 °C. This mild pattern, driven by a broad high-pressure influence and limited cold-air advection, underpins the market’s elevated implied probability for −3 °C or below at 50 %, reflecting trader caution over potential model spread or rapid radiative cooling if clouds clear. Historical precedent shows October 13 lows below −3 °C are rare, last occurring in 1992, while recent ensemble runs show limited downside risk. Updated model guidance expected overnight and early on the 13th will likely refine the minimum before resolution.