Forecast models project Guangzhou's overnight low on October 16 near 24–25°C, supporting the closely matched 48.5% and 47.0% market probabilities for those exact outcomes. In the city's subtropical monsoon climate, radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, combined with urban heat retention and light wind patterns, typically produces lows in this narrow band during mid-October. Ensemble guidance shows small differences in boundary-layer moisture and high-pressure positioning that could shift the minimum by 1°C, while historical climatology places average October minima around 22–24°C. China Meteorological Administration station readings at the official site will set the resolution threshold, leaving traders focused on the latest model runs for any last adjustments.