Latest ensemble forecasts from major models place Guangzhou's minimum temperature on October 13 near 24°C, with light northerly winds and mostly clear skies limiting overnight radiative cooling while warm advection from the north maintains mild conditions. This produces a narrow distribution of outcomes centered on 23–25°C, as small differences in boundary-layer mixing or dew point depression can shift the exact low by 1°C. Historical October averages near 21°C provide context, but persistent high pressure and above-normal sea-surface temperatures have elevated the baseline. Traders are weighting the latest model runs and regional observations, with final resolution hinging on official station data collected through the night.