Official National Weather Service forecasts for Dallas on October 15 project a low near 63°F, driven by a cold front shifting winds from southerly to northerly overnight and introducing cooler, drier air behind it. Model consensus and recent observations place the overnight minimum in the low-to-mid 60s, with limited disagreement among runs supporting the 41% market-implied probability on 63°F or below while keeping adjacent bins near 33%. Historical October lows in the region average around 60°F, providing context for the tight clustering of outcomes. Traders appear focused on final model updates and any last-minute wind or cloud-cover adjustments that could nudge the reading across bin thresholds before resolution.