**Forecasts from authoritative sources point to an overnight low near 20°C in Chongqing on October 15, 2026, under cloudy skies with light rain or drizzle.** This keeps the daily minimum in the narrow 17–20°C range where market-implied odds cluster tightly around 50%. High humidity (often 85–95%) and light northeasterly winds limit radiative cooling overnight, while residual cloud cover from the autumn transition further moderates temperature drops compared with clear-sky scenarios. Recent model runs show consistency in daytime highs of 24–26°C but slight divergence on the precise nocturnal minimum depending on rain timing and local urban heat effects. Historical October climatology for the region supports lows typically in the high teens to low 20s, with the current pattern aligning near the warmer end of that envelope. Updated observations through the night will refine the exact reading used for market resolution.