Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a daily minimum temperature in Chongqing around 20–21°C on October 15, 2026, under persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, high humidity near 90%, and light northeasterly winds. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping overnight lows elevated compared to clearer autumn nights. Chongqing’s basin topography and urban heat effects further moderate temperature drops, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 18–20°C outcomes. Trader consensus reflects this model agreement, with lower probabilities assigned to 17°C or below due to the absence of a strong cold front or clear-sky radiative cooling. Official resolution will depend on China Meteorological Administration station readings, with any late-day clearing or wind shifts as potential variables.